The Effect of Interaction Between Democratization and Ethno-Religious Diversity on Internal Conflict in Developing Countries
The purpose of this paper is to analyze determinants of internal conflict in developing countries. It will examine whether or not there is any effect of interaction between democratization and ethnic-religious diversity on the likelihood of internal conflict: Ethnic conflicts, religious conflicts, riots, forceful overthrows of government, secessionist or independence movements, etc. The paper will cover both the Cold War and the post-Cold War period based on cross-national data (approximately 130 countries). In addition to democratization and ethnic-religious diversity, the following independent variables are also assumed to affect the likelihood of internal conflict: economic growth, quality of life variables (unemployment, income inequality, illiteracy, circulation of media), global dependency, and defence spending. These additional variables will also be treated as control variables in order to isolate a 'pure' effect of interaction between democratization and ethnic-religious diversity on internal conflict, which is treated as a dependent variable. Logistic regression, factor analysis, discriminant analysis and cross-tabs, among others, are the statistical methods that will be utilized in the analysis of cross-national data in this paper.
Keywords: Effect of Interaction, Democratization, Internal Conflict, Ethno-Religious Diversity, Secessionist, Quality of Life, Income Inequality, Global Dependency, Logistic Regression, Factor Analysis, Discriminant Analysis, Cross-Tabs
Dr Hae.S Kim
Professor in International Relations, Department of Political Science, Troy State University